The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ July 2026 Employment Situation report is expected to show a moderate increase in payrolls, with forecasts suggesting an addition of 85,000 to 100,000 jobs. This follows June’s gain of 57,000 jobs, reflecting a stable but non-accelerating labor market. The unemployment rate is expected to hover around 4.2%, with labor force participation near 61.5%. The emerging « low-hire, low-fire » trend suggests a labor market in equilibrium. These moderate indicators appear to reduce the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike by its September 2026 meeting, currently priced at 44.5%.
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