India’s central bank is expected to keep its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.25% during its monetary policy committee meeting from August 3 to 5, a decision that enjoys broad market consensus. Forecasters have revised their inflation estimate upward to 5.1% for fiscal year 2027, from 4.6% previously, while lowering their GDP growth projection to 6.6%, from 6.9% before. The rise in global crude oil prices is the main driver of these shifts, and since India imports roughly 85% of its oil, this represents a substantial economic challenge for the country.
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