OPEC+, the coalition of oil-producing nations led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is reportedly expected to increase its oil output in response to supply disruptions caused by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency has described the situation as the largest oil supply disruption in history. Prediction markets reflect a 5.4% probability that crude oil will reach a new all-time high by September 30, down from 7% a week ago, and 14.5% by December 31. This decline reflects market participants’ anticipation of a potential oversupply if OPEC+ increases production.
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