Europe’s intense heat waves have disrupted several reliable electricity sources, including French nuclear reactors forced to curtail output due to hot river water temperatures. This situation has led the continent to increase its reliance on imported fossil fuels and variable renewable energy sources. Meanwhile, Saudi oil tankers are rerouting around Africa in response to Houthi threats, impacting oil transport times and costs. Market probabilities now indicate a 4.9% chance of crude oil reaching a new all-time high by September 30, rising to 14.0% by December 31. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to pose risks to global oil supply stability.
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