SOFR futures open interest surpassed 15.8 million contracts, a historic record, as traders positioned themselves ahead of the July FOMC decision. Rate hike probabilities for that meeting ranged between 32% and 38% according to the CME FedWatch tool. The SR3 contract, the benchmark instrument for leveraged funds, hit a record 14.2 million contracts with short positions suggesting genuine conviction rather than hedging. Bitcoin traded in a range between $63,000 and $65,500 ahead of the announcement, with higher rates strengthening the dollar and increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
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