The Federal Reserve is considered highly unlikely to raise interest rates this week, with the market assigning only a 24.2% probability to a July hike. The federal funds rate target range remains at 3.50%-3.75%, with the effective rate at 3.63%, while the IORB stands at 3.65% and the primary credit rate at 3.75%. Market expectations for September and October are notably higher, at 69.5% and 73.5% respectively. Recent inflation data and the Fed’s current policy stance continue to drive this cautious short-term outlook.
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