OPEC+ is reportedly planning to pause its oil-production quota increases after a final hike in September 2026, as the group navigates volatile supply conditions triggered by the ongoing war in Iran. The conflict has significantly disrupted Gulf oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint in global oil trade. The probability of crude oil reaching a new all-time high is currently estimated at 5.9% by September 30 and 12.5% by December 31. This decision, which follows a series of gradual quota increases aimed at unwinding previous production cuts, reflects a cautious stance amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
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