Grayscale has challenged Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle by arguing that Fed interest rates and economic growth now drive BTC’s trajectory instead of the halving event. The asset management firm believes that if the Federal Reserve does not raise rates at its July 29 meeting, the market bottom may already be in. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the probability of unchanged rates stands at 66%, down from 88% a week earlier. For the September meeting, the probability of a rate hike has surged to 82%, versus under 53% just a week ago, which weakens Grayscale’s thesis if tightening occurs in the fall.
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