The 10-year US Treasury yield has crossed the 5% threshold for the first time since October 2023, amid heightened concerns about inflation and potential Federal Reserve policy moves. This rise comes alongside higher mortgage rates, with 30-year home loan rates exceeding 7%. Market participants are pricing in tighter financial conditions and a reduced likelihood that the Fed maintains its pause on interest rates. The probability of a pause in June, July, and September has fallen from 50% to 16.5% over the past week.
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