Venezuela’s oil exports declined noticeably in July, falling to approximately 1.16 million barrels per day from 1.2 million in June. This decrease is primarily attributed to a significant drop in Indian purchases, which fell from 277,000 to 178,000 barrels per day. The ceasefire in the Iran conflict has enabled greater Middle Eastern oil flows, reducing India’s reliance on Venezuelan imports. Meanwhile, shipments to the United States reached 786,000 barrels per day, their highest level since early 2019. Markets now estimate just a 3.7% probability that crude oil will reach a new all-time high by September 30.
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