The U.S. Department of State announced a new agreement with Venezuela aimed at providing stable and low-cost crude oil to the United States while supporting Venezuela’s economic recovery. The deal also seeks to reduce the influence of foreign adversaries in the Western Hemisphere. The full terms have not been disclosed, but it follows partial sanctions relief on Venezuela’s oil sector that has been ongoing since early 2026. The market prices the probability of crude oil reaching an all-time high by September 30 at just 2.2% for a YES outcome, down from 3% a week earlier. Observers believe increased supply and market stability could prevent a significant price surge in the near term.
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