The US Treasury is expected to keep bond auction sizes unchanged in its August 2026 refunding statement, according to JPMorgan strategists led by Jay Barry. The Treasury aims to avoid market volatility ahead of November’s midterm elections, with the next refunding announcement scheduled just one day after the vote on November 8. JPMorgan projects a funding gap of $3.7 trillion over the next four fiscal years, representing a massive amount of new debt that needs buyers. Long-maturity yields have been hovering near their highest levels since President Trump took office, making any increase in bond supply particularly sensitive. The first opportunity for the Treasury to adjust its issuance plans without electoral considerations would be the November 2026 refunding announcement.
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