US payroll drop raises job market concerns as Fed rate hike odds fall

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US nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 jobs in July 2026, marking the first negative reading since February, while economists had forecast a gain of 80,000 positions. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised down a combined 103,000 jobs from previously reported May and June totals. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, but this decline was driven by 264,000 workers leaving the labor force entirely, pushing the participation rate to 61.4%, its lowest level in nearly five and a half years. Markets quickly scaled back the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 2026 meeting, as the cluster of weak indicators points to a significant cooling of the economy.

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