The latest U.S. jobs report shows a slight increase in initial jobless claims alongside a stable unemployment claim rate. The U.S. trade deficit is showing signs of narrowing. Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggested a rate hike could be on the table if upcoming inflation data proves strong. Market participants are now pricing in a 50% probability of a rate hike by the September 2026 meeting. The upcoming inflation figures will be critical in shaping the Federal Reserve’s rate decision.
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