The United States conducted no strikes on Iran on Friday night, marking the first evening without reported military action in two weeks. This pause occurs amid a fragile ceasefire that has been frequently violated, raising questions about the stability of the current conflict cycle. Markets slightly reduced the estimated probability of the Iranian regime’s fall before 2027, with YES pricing dropping from 10% to 9.5%. The situation remains volatile, and any resumption of hostilities or diplomatic development could influence market perceptions.
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