The US goods trade deficit narrowed to $101.5 billion in June 2026, a 4.2% improvement from May’s $105.9 billion, with imports declining 2.6% and exports falling 1.8%. Economists project that net exports will subtract approximately 1 percentage point from second-quarter GDP growth, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimating a 1.35 percentage point reduction. May’s deficit had reached $77.6 billion, the largest monthly shortfall since March 2025, suggesting June’s improvement represents a rebound from an unusually wide gap rather than a fundamental trend reversal. Tariff measures from the previous administration, particularly targeting Canada and Mexico, continue to distort current trade balances. The advance GDP release on July 30 will confirm the actual growth impact, with implications for dollar strength and risk assets including crypto.
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