US copper imports spiked to roughly 200,000 metric tons in July 2025, the largest monthly inflow recorded in shipping data going back to at least 2014. COMEX copper inventories have surged from approximately 80,000 tonnes to around 650,000 tonnes, an eightfold increase. Section 232 tariffs of 50% were imposed on semi-finished copper products in August 2025, while refined copper was exempted, prompting traders to build massive stockpiles ahead of a potential tariff extension to 15% in 2027 and 30% in 2028. The premium for US-delivered copper over London Metal Exchange benchmarks has remained elevated, incentivizing shipments to flow toward American ports rather than buyers in Asia or Europe. For commodity investors, the key variable is the presidential decision itself, which will determine whether the 650,000 tonnes sitting in COMEX warehouses represent a competitive advantage or an expensive bet that needs unwinding.
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