US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has reiterated the United States’ capability to sustain a blockade against Iran indefinitely. This blockade, reimposed in July after a brief cessation, specifically targets Iranian ports while allowing neutral passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Prediction markets price a US announcement ending the blockade by August 31, 2026, at 31.5% likelihood, and traffic normalization in the Strait of Hormuz by end of August at just 2.5%. Hegseth’s statements suggest continued commitment to the blockade, making an immediate resolution unlikely.
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