A Ukrainian strike on the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don has resulted in two fatalities, according to official reports. This attack targeted industrial and transport infrastructure as part of ongoing cross-border hostilities between Russia and Ukraine. Rostov-on-Don, a significant southern Russian hub, has become a recurring target in this conflict. In response to this escalation, prediction markets have adjusted downward the perceived likelihood of a ceasefire agreement by the end of 2026, now standing at 35.5%. This decrease reflects market participants’ view that ongoing military activities are inconsistent with scenarios leading to a peaceful resolution in the near term.
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