Two prediction market platforms, Trepa and Fireplace, announced their shutdown within 90 minutes of each other on Monday morning, giving users until September 30 to withdraw their funds. These two startups failed to withstand market concentration: Kalshi and Polymarket now capture 93.3% of volume across the 40 platforms tracked by DefiLlama, representing $13.87 billion out of $14.87 billion traded over the past 30 days. Kalshi, valued at $22 billion, dominates with 75.7% of volume, while research covering 2.5 million wallets reveals that 84% of Polymarket traders are losing money. Trepa’s founders concluded that the genuinely active audience for this type of product numbers in the hundreds of thousands, not millions.
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