Trump’s team has reportedly ended a recent losing streak, with discussions on bilateral diplomacy taking center stage, according to CNBC. Markets have not significantly adjusted their expectations regarding a US-Iran meeting in the UAE by September 30, 2026, with the probability remaining at 0.1%. Market participants estimate at 90% that no qualifying meeting will occur between the two countries by the end of September 2026. This probability level reflects investors’ skepticism about an imminent diplomatic breakthrough, despite the discussions reported by Trump’s team.
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