Trump says U.S. growth could hit 20%. It’s happened only once since WWII

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Donald Trump said Monday that the U.S. economy could grow at rates as high as 20%, arguing that even such rapid growth should not prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The Fed held its benchmark rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% in July, with three policymakers dissenting in favor of a quarter-point hike. According to Bureau of Economic Analysis data, real GDP has grown at an annualized rate of 20% or more only once since 1947: the third quarter of 2020, when the economy surged at a 34.9% annualized rate during the post-Covid reopening. Real GDP increased at a 1.5% annualized rate in the second quarter of 2026, down from 2.1% in the first quarter.

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