Top economists on ‘unexpected turbulence’ in the U.S. jobs market — the plane is coming in low and hitting a rough patch

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Nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, badly missing consensus estimates of 80,000 to 90,000 jobs. Revisions to May and June data subtracted a combined 103,000 positions, bringing the 12-month average to just 34,000 jobs per month. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, but only because the labor force shrank by 264,000 workers, not because more people found jobs. Much of the weakness reflects a 53,000 drop in government employment, particularly in local education, a seasonal quirk that typically reverses in the fall. Nearly every economist tied Friday’s data to the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, with most agreeing the report gives the Fed room to hold rates steady.

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