Tom Lee of Fundstrat maintains his forecast of the S&P 500 reaching 8,000 by end of August, based on rising 2027 earnings estimates that have climbed from $395 to $410 per share, with potential to reach $425. He sees the combination of valuations cooling by two full turns since March and earnings growth more than doubling as a sign of healthy skepticism rather than market exhaustion. Lee warns of four risks that could trigger a 10% pullback: record margin debt levels, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s new inflation framework, midterm election uncertainty, and further SpaceX stock unlocks. He compares the current setup to the 1998 rally following the LTCM collapse, which lasted another 18 months and added 35%.
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