A Vera Research study analyzing 567,033 news-to-market pairs across 3,707 markets and 123,424 news items measured how often news moved prediction markets by five cents or more. The results reveal two distinct tiers: crypto, soccer and geopolitics reacted roughly one in ten times, compared to one in thirty to forty-five for economy, politics and technology. The gap between these tiers, roughly a factor of three to five, is the study’s only reliable finding, as the order within each tier is not stable. The key distinction lies in separating how often a market moves from how much of that movement is attributable to news: crypto markets show high ambient volatility independent of news. Once this volatility is isolated, soccer emerges as the most news-reactive subject, followed by economy, while crypto, technology, politics and geopolitics cannot be ranked against each other.
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