Donald Trump’s restrictive immigration policies and massive baby-boomer retirements are transforming the American labor market. According to Oxford Economics, the employment creation rate needed to maintain stable unemployment has dropped to 50,000 jobs per month, down from over 200,000 in 2022 and 2023. This threshold will become zero next year and negative in 2028, meaning the economy could destroy jobs without raising unemployment. BNP Paribas economists also note that the Supreme Court’s decision allowing the White House to end temporary protected status for certain non-citizen workers could reduce the documented workforce by several hundred thousand people.
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