Sugar prices surged 21.5% in August, their strongest monthly gain since October 2010, pushing the sweetener up about 20% in 2026, outperforming the S&P 500’s nearly 13% advance. The European Commission estimates EU production will drop 19% to 13.4 million metric tons for the 2026/27 marketing year. Multiple factors are driving this rally: a summer heat wave damaged Europe’s sugar beet crops, El Niño threatens harvests in Brazil, India and Thailand, and these three countries account for approximately 70% of global sugar exports. Citi projected a world deficit of 1.3 million metric tons and raised its price target to 19 cents per pound over three months.
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