The special Republican primary in South Carolina, scheduled for August 11, 2026, serves as a critical test of Donald Trump’s endorsement influence following Senator Lindsey Graham’s death after securing the GOP nomination in June. Darline Graham Nordone, appointed by Governor Henry McMaster as an interim replacement, leads with 74 percent market probability. U.S. Representatives Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman are the other contenders, with Norman rising from 8 percent to 21 percent in one week on prediction markets, likely boosted by Trump’s potential backing. If no candidate secures a majority on August 11, a runoff is scheduled for August 25.
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