Fitch Ratings confirmed Romania’s BBB- rating on July 31, keeping the country one notch above junk status with a negative outlook that makes a downgrade more likely than an upgrade. The general government deficit is projected at 5.9% of GDP for 2026, down from 9.3% in 2024, while public debt is expected to reach 64.5% of GDP by 2028. The four-party coalition government collapsed in May 2026, leaving the country in political fragmentation that makes budget reform execution extremely difficult. A downgrade to junk would trigger forced selling by institutional investors whose mandates require investment-grade holdings. S&P Global Ratings reached a similar conclusion earlier in 2026, also affirming its BBB- rating under comparable fiscal and political pressures.
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