Polymarket traders assign just 18% probability that Tesla and SpaceX will announce a merger before the end of 2026, with the September 30 contract showing roughly 5% odds, indicating near-term skepticism. Trading volume across relevant contracts has exceeded $1 million, reflecting genuine interest despite the low odds. SpaceX reported solid results with revenue reaching $7.8 billion, up 92% year-over-year, but shares tumbled 12% following its first public earnings report after the June 2026 IPO, as investors focused on capital expenditures exceeding $18 billion directed toward artificial intelligence infrastructure. Some projections value a combined Tesla-SpaceX entity between $3.5 trillion and $5 trillion, though substantial structural obstacles remain, including regulatory scrutiny, geopolitical sensitivity given SpaceX’s role as a U.S. defense contractor, and integration complexity between a profitable automotive business and a capital-intensive space and AI operation.
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