Political tensions are intensifying in the United States, Israel, and Iran, complicating negotiations for a potential deal including a reconstruction plan. Markets now estimate the probability of such an agreement at 10.5%, down from 18% a week ago. Key negotiators, including US Chief Representative Mike Vance and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, are facing growing domestic political pressures. Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan continue their efforts to achieve a stable ceasefire, but any renewed military tensions could alter these prospects.
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