BTIG is warning about a concerning signal for U.S. small-caps. In August, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) hit an all-time high while finishing the month up less than 1%, a pattern that has only occurred five times before. Those five instances (July 2000, Sept 2008, June 2015, June 2018 and Nov. 2021) were all followed by four-month declines averaging 13.57%. The firm also noted that 10-year yields have reached new cycle highs above 4.75% and the odds for a rate hike in September are back up to 65%.
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