A preprint study on arXiv analyzing seven major Bitcoin crashes on Binance’s BTCUSDT perpetual market between May 2022 and October 2025 found that no price, leverage, or order-flow metric consistently warned of all seven liquidation cascades. Price showed a slowing-down signal in five out of seven events but failed during the two tariff-shock crashes of February and October 2025. Taker-flow variance tightened before six cascades, yet the pattern was too weak to reliably predict an individual crash. The out-of-sample test confirmed this instability: in October 2025 the signal came from leverage and order flow rather than price, while in August 2024 the pattern inverted. In June 2026, approximately one billion dollars in forced derivatives closures were reported during a Bitcoin selloff, beyond the study’s sample period.
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