Mexico’s peso has been climbing as the country’s exports to the US reached a record $545 billion in 2025, up 5.8% year-over-year, driven by USMCA compliance and the accelerating nearshoring trend. The currency is trading around 17 MXN per USD, but projections suggest it could weaken to approximately 17.92 MXN per USD in the second half of 2026 amid negotiation uncertainty. A third round of USMCA negotiations concluded in July 2026 in Mexico City, with further talks planned for September in Washington, D.C., focusing on auto rules of origin and market access provisions. The automotive sector remains the key area to watch, as any revision to regional content requirements would immediately ripple through the entire cross-border supply chain.
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