Fed funds futures indicate roughly a 67.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep its target rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range after the September 16 FOMC meeting, versus approximately 32% odds of a 25-basis-point hike to 3.75%-4.00%. The committee already voted 9-3 to hold rates at its July meeting, signaling internal disagreement over whether current policy is restrictive enough to curb inflation. The September meeting carries particular significance as it includes the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections and the « dot plot » showing individual rate expectations. J.P. Morgan has shifted its outlook toward a potential September hike, citing recent inflation data that has not aligned with the Fed’s timeline for easing price pressures.
Source: Read the original article
