Long-term US unemployment rate rises to 27% despite strong August hiring

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The US economy added 162,000 jobs in August, nearly three times the consensus estimate of 56,000. The headline unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, but the share of long-term unemployed (27 weeks or more) climbed to 27% from 25.5% in July, representing approximately 1.93 million people. The median duration of unemployment rose to 11.4 weeks from 10.5 weeks the prior month. This situation reflects a structural shift toward a low-hire, low-fire dynamic where companies are not laying off workers at alarming rates but are also not hiring aggressively enough to absorb those who have been unemployed for extended periods. The Federal Reserve faces a policy dilemma, as monetary tools are ill-suited to address a skills mismatch problem.

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