Markets expect the Fed to hold rates unchanged, but an unexpected hike could force investors to reassess the monetary path for 2026 and test Bitcoin’s resilience. Bank of America estimates that a surprise hike could push 2026 tightening expectations from roughly 45 to 60 basis points, breaking a market-pricing pattern in place since 1994. Despite roughly $477 million in net outflows from US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past three trading sessions, Bitcoin has gained about 9% this month, outperforming the S&P 500 and semiconductor stocks which fell nearly 20%. The total crypto market cap stands at $2.2 trillion, with Bitcoin dominance at 58.74%.
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