Israel continues its military operations in southern Lebanon despite a US-brokered ceasefire agreement established since April 2026. The Israeli army maintains its security zone beyond the Litani River, resulting in ongoing airstrikes and demolition activities. The conflict has caused over 4,300 deaths since March, along with significant population displacement. Markets anticipate a low probability of Israeli withdrawal before the December 31 deadline, with odds at just 0.1% YES for withdrawal by August 31.
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