Is Bitcoin Finally Finding Its Floor? Goldman Sachs and the Clarity Act Revive Institutional Optimism

After months of sustained decline that pushed Bitcoin below the $60,000 mark, signs of a reversal are multiplying. Goldman Sachs, in a research note published in late March 2026, estimated that the « leveraged washout » weighing on the market since autumn 2025 may have run its course. Simultaneously, the Clarity Act, the U.S. market structure bill for digital assets, is regaining momentum in Congress under the joint push of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, SEC Chair Paul Atkins, and the White House’s « crypto czar, » David Sacks. Ethereum’s Glamsterdam upgrade is also on the horizon for mid-2026. Here is a look at this convergence of events that is giving renewed arguments to those who advocate patience.

Background

The digital asset market experienced a tough first quarter in 2026. Bitcoin, which had reached a peak above $110,000 in autumn 2025, gradually retreated to a low near $58,000 in early April. This 45% correction over a few months triggered massive sell-offs across altcoins and a sharp tightening of net long positions on the derivatives markets. Long contract liquidations reached historic records, with more than $2.1 billion in positions liquidated in a single day on Binance and Bybit during the peak of the crisis.

Several factors fueled this downtrend. The first was the tightening of U.S. monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve maintaining its benchmark rates in the 4.25% to 4.50% range despite inflation remaining above the 2% target. This high-rate configuration increases the opportunity cost of risk assets and pushes institutional investors toward classic safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasury bonds or gold.

The second factor stems from persistent regulatory uncertainty in the United States, with the Clarity Act being postponed several times since its initial filing in January 2026. Without a clear regulatory framework, major U.S. financial players remain on the sidelines, limiting fresh capital flows into the digital asset sector. This situation has also prompted several platforms to favor more welcoming jurisdictions such as the United Arab Emirates or Singapore for their retail activities.

The third factor, more technical in nature, was the wave of unloading by miners and early holders who seized the opportunity to take profits. Glassnode data shows that miner addresses experienced their strongest selling period since the May 2022 crash, with a net outflow of more than 4,800 BTC leaving mining wallets every week since the start of 2026.

However, the past few weeks of April 2026 show a noticeable shift in dynamics. Institutional flows are returning, on-chain indicators show a rally in long addresses, and several authoritative voices in American finance are now calling for urgent legislative action. The market appears to have priced in the bad news and is now anticipating an improvement in the context rather than a continuation of deterioration.

The Facts

On March 28, 2026, Goldman Sachs published a research note whose conclusion caught the sector’s attention: « The re-entry of institutional liquidity suggests that the leveraged washout is now complete, » wrote James Yaro, senior analyst at Goldman Sachs. This statement comes as Bitcoin oscillates around $67,000 to $77,000, a level the investment bank views as a structural accumulation zone rather than a distribution zone. The note specifies that the market’s symmetric risk indicators have reached levels observed only twice since 2017: during the 2018 bear market trough and during the March 2020 crash.

That same day, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent published an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal urging the Senate to advance the Clarity Act before the end of the quarter. « Senate time is precious, and now is the time to act, » he said on social media. « The Clarity Act would restore confidence that digital asset businesses can build and grow in the United States. » This joint statement with SEC Chair Paul Atkins and David Sacks, the White House crypto czar, represents a rare alignment between the three pillars of American financial policy.

The Clarity Act, whose 278-page draft was made public by the Senate Banking Committee on January 12, 2026, aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets. It distinguishes three main categories: digital Commodity assets under CFTC jurisdiction, investment contract assets under SEC jurisdiction, and payment stablecoins under banking regulators’ authority. The current text prohibits digital asset service providers from offering interest or yield to users for simply holding stablecoin balances, while allowing activity-linked rewards or conditional incentives.

The bill also provides for an 18-month transition period for existing actors to comply, with specific licenses for digital asset service providers. Critics of the text point out, however, that restrictions on stablecoin yields could hinder innovation in this segment, as competing offshore products already offer attractive yields without comparable restrictions.

Meanwhile, on April 15, 2026, the IRS formally implemented mandatory cost basis reporting for digital asset brokers via Form 1099-DA. This measure, part of the expanded tax compliance framework for the sector, requires digital asset platforms to report users’ capital gains to U.S. tax authorities. For individual investors, this means the end of approximate self-declaration and tighter integration of crypto capital gains into the general U.S. tax regime.

On the technical side, Ethereum is preparing its Glamsterdam upgrade, expected in mid-2026. Vitalik Buterin outlined eight Ethereum Improvement Proposals in February 2026 to define the scope of this upgrade. Among the major changes is the introduction of ePBS (enshrined Proposer-Builder Separation), a mechanism that moves the separation between block proposer and builder directly on-chain. Researchers estimate that ePBS could reduce MEV (miner extractable value) extraction by up to 70%, which would translate to fairer execution for anyone trading, borrowing, or providing liquidity on Ethereum’s base layer.

The gas limit per block will rise from 60 million to 200 million units, with a target throughput of 10,000 transactions per second — roughly ten times what Ethereum currently handles. This substantial improvement in network capacity addresses a persistent criticism of Ethereum’s scalability and could support highly trafficked decentralized applications without congestion. Another key change is gas repricing through EIP-7904, which realigns gas costs with the actual computational resources each operation consumes, enabling substantial savings for complex operations like smart contract deployment or decentralized exchange trading.

Analysis

The convergence of these three narratives — exhausted bearish signal at Goldman Sachs, legislative progress on the Clarity Act, and major technical development at Ethereum — is not insignificant. It answers a precise configuration of factors that, each taken in isolation, might not have been sufficient to change the market’s dynamics, but that collectively create a climate of « stealth accumulation. » Market historians compare this configuration to late 2020, when Bitcoin experienced a first phase of democratization among retail investors before institutional entry in the first quarter of 2021.

On the regulatory side, the fact that Scott Bessent, Paul Atkins, and David Sacks are speaking jointly constitutes a strong political signal. These three figures respectively represent the Treasury Department, the market regulator, and the White House. A triangular agreement of this nature is rare and suggests that the Trump administration is aiming for a coherent rather than fragmented approach to the sector. Bessent’s explicit mention of the need to bring the future of finance to American soil indicates a precise political will to bring crypto innovation back to the United States, an industry that had gradually turned to other jurisdictions during the years of regulatory uncertainty under previous administrations.

On the economic front, the context also deserves nuance. While the Federal Reserve maintains its high rates, rate-cut expectations for the second half of 2026 remain intact. The bond market now anticipates three rate cuts of 25 basis points each by December 2026, which would reduce the opportunity cost of risk assets and improve financing conditions for companies in the crypto sector. Additionally, record inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs since the start of 2026 — more than $14 billion cumulatively — testify to strong latent demand that only needs a favorable signal to materialize.

On the technical side, Ethereum’s Glamsterdam upgrade addresses several recurring criticisms of the network. Slow transaction speeds, high gas costs during peak demand periods, and the concentration of MEV extraction power among a few actors are problems this upgrade directly tackles. The 10,000 TPS target would place Ethereum in a performance category comparable to centralized payment networks like Visa, while retaining its properties of decentralization and censorship resistance. This performance could also accelerate the adoption of decentralized applications by traditional enterprises that have until now hesitated given the scalability limitations.

Market Reactions

Since the publication of the Goldman Sachs note, Bitcoin has recovered to the $77,000 level, representing a gain of approximately 32% from the April low. Spot trading volumes surged 28% in one week, while net flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs turned positive for the first time since February, with cumulative inflows of $847 million over the first five business days of April, according to Glassnode data. The main beneficiaries of these flows are BlackRock and Fidelity ETFs, which concentrate approximately 78% of the sector’s net inflows.

On the derivatives market, the funding rate for perpetual contracts remains slightly negative, signaling that net leveraged traders have not yet fully reinvested on the long side. This is precisely the configuration that, according to analysts, precedes institutional accumulation phases: retail investors are cautious, institutions are starting to position. The put/call ratio on the options markets also remains in bullish territory, with interest shown for upside hedges rather than bearish bets.

Ethereum has also benefited from this renewed appetite. ETH’s price broke above the $2,000 level for the first time since January, buoyed by both Glamsterdam anticipation and the general climate of regulatory optimism. On-chain data shows a 34% increase in daily active addresses on the Ethereum network compared to the first quarter average, a sign of recovery in blockchain activity. The Ethereum NFT market also experienced a modest restart with volumes up 18% on OpenSea and Blur in March 2026 compared to February.

Major altcoins also participated in the generalized rebound. Solana (SOL) recovered to the $150 level, Polygon (MATIC) gained 22% over the month, and Avalanche (AVAX) returned to price levels not seen since November 2025. This broadening of the rally beyond Bitcoin alone is generally interpreted as a sign of overall crypto market health and a reduction in the « bitcoin-only » risk that had prevailed during the down phase.

Outlook

Several scenarios deserve consideration for the coming months. The base case, held by the majority of analysts contacted for this article, is that of gradual stabilization around $75,000 to $85,000 for Bitcoin during the second quarter of 2026, accompanied by a decline in implied volatility and a reduction in hedging costs for institutional players. This bearish consolidation phase would allow the market to digest the short positions accumulated during the panic period and reform a solid base for a possible recovery in the second half.

This scenario rests on two prerequisites: the passage of the Clarity Act by the Senate before the summer recess, and the absence of new external macroeconomic shocks. On the first point, analysts remain optimistic but cautious. The U.S. legislative process is unpredictable and last-minute postponements could push adoption to fall 2026. On the second point, the main identified risk factors are inflation persistence above 3% in the United States, a possible tightening of Sino-American trade relations, or a new regional banking crisis following difficulties encountered by several U.S. institutions in the first quarter.

The bullish scenario, more ambitious but credible if catalysts align, would see Bitcoin surpass its previous peak of $110,000 by end of 2026. This scenario assumes rapid passage of the Clarity Act, Fed rate cuts in the second half, and the launch of spot ether ETFs in the United States. Price projections for this scenario place Bitcoin between $130,000 and $150,000 by December 2026, driven by expected institutional flows.

The bearish scenario, less likely but to be kept in mind, rests on a failure of the Clarity Act and a return of selling pressure on digital assets. Such a scenario would likely push Bitcoin back to the $55,000 to $60,000 zone, with cascading consequences across the rest of the market. Altcoins would suffer proportionally larger losses, with potential declines of 40 to 60% for the most speculative assets. Trading platforms could experience liquidity difficulties similar to those observed during previous bear market cycles.

For investors, the main message of this period is one of patience and sector diversification. Bitcoin and Ethereum represent different but complementary risk profiles: Bitcoin as a digital store of value and macroeconomic hedge, Ethereum as a decentralized finance infrastructure and decentralized applications platform. The convergence of technical and regulatory catalysts observed this April 2026 strengthens the case for a thoughtful allocation to both assets for a medium-term horizon. Practical advice for investors is to dollar-cost average on dips rather than trying to time the market, to favor regulated products like ETFs for indirect exposure, and to maintain altcoin exposure that does not exceed 10 to 15% of the crypto portfolio to limit downside risk.

Sources

• Goldman Sachs Just Quietly Called The Bitcoin Price Bottom — Forbes
• Goldman Sachs: Crypto and Bitcoin Might Have Bottomed — Bitcoin Magazine
• SEC, Treasury Officials Urge Congress To Pass Crypto Market Bill — Bitcoin Magazine
• Crypto Regulation News Update 2026: CLARITY Act, SEC-CFTC Framework, and 1099-DA — WEEX
• The CLARITY Act Goes Into Recess Unresolved — FinTech Weekly
• Ethereum’s Glamsterdam Upgrade Explained — Phemex