Bitcoin surged roughly 25% in August, climbing from about $64,420 to nearly $80,700 in just six trading days. Since then, BTC has consolidated around $77,470, a move traders describe as a « Bart Simpson » setup: sharp spike, flat top, partial giveback. Technical indicators on the 4-hour chart do not signal an imminent crash: the RSI sits at 44.8, the ADX at 22, and the 50-period moving average remains above the 200-period moving average, confirming a bullish structure. A break below $75,800 would confirm the bearish setup, but the most realistic scenario is a gradual correction toward $62,000 over several weeks rather than a flash crash. September’s historical weakness, with Bitcoin posting an average 2.97% loss and an 8-out-of-13 red Septembers record, combined with a 64% probability of a Fed rate hike, adds further pressure on risk assets.
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