Six months after the US-Iran conflict began in late February 2026, maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted by up to 90%, dropping from 130-140 commercial vessels per day to just a handful. The strategic corridor, which normally handles 18 to 21 million barrels per day, or roughly 20% of global oil and refined product supplies, now operates between 2 and 9 million barrels per day. Brent crude has surged from $70-77 to $85-94 per barrel. Iran’s own crude exports have collapsed by approximately 90%, falling to just 260,000-300,000 barrels per day under the weight of a US naval blockade and persistent attacks on commercial shipping. Markets are adapting through pipeline rerouting, inventory drawdowns, and the use of vessels that disable their tracking systems, but refined products remain under the sharpest pressure.
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