Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has announced it will retaliate against a US military strike on Larak Island, which Tehran described as a « fatal mistake. » The United States justified its attack by citing Iranian preparations to deploy sea mines in the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz. This incident, part of an ongoing series of escalations in the 2026 Iran-US conflict, could further complicate diplomatic negotiations, particularly regarding reconstruction funding and uranium enrichment terms. Market pricing now suggests a probability below 11% for a US-Iran deal involving reconstruction funding.
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