A human rights activist has warned that Iran is prioritizing conflict with the United States over pursuing peace, in an effort to distract from internal unrest. The conflict between the two countries began in February 2026. Prediction markets reflect this trend, with the likelihood of diplomatic talks falling to 8.5% by end of September 2026, down from 22% a week ago. Other scenarios are also being priced in, such as the potential inclusion of Iran Reconstruction Funding in a potential deal, estimated at 11%.
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