Galaxy Research has revised its forecast for the probability of the CLARITY Act being passed in 2026, lowering it from 50% to 30%. This crypto market structure bill passed the House in 2025 and cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May 2026. The 60-vote threshold in the Senate remains a major obstacle to overcoming a potential filibuster. Prediction markets reflect this pessimism, with the passage probability now estimated at 36.5%, down from 42% a week ago. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott will be key figures to watch.
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