The Federal Reserve’s July 28-29 FOMC meeting is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable rate decisions in recent memory. Divisions within the committee, described by insiders as a ‘family fight,’ pit inflation hawks against doves. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has maintained strategic silence on policy direction, keeping markets guessing. Futures markets price in a 32% to 36% chance of a rate hike, with the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% throughout 2026. Bitcoin is trading in a $60,000 to $94,000 range, significantly below its late 2025 peak of $126,000, with Bitcoin ETFs seeing notable outflows following the June hawkish signals.
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