The U.S. Federal Reserve holds its FOMC meeting on July 28-29, with the federal funds rate parked at 3.5%-3.75% since January 2026. Markets are pricing in a 25-30% probability of a 25 basis point hike this week, and an 80% chance of a rate adjustment by September. Revised inflation projections for 2026 now average around 3.6%, well above the Fed’s 2% target. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has stated that inflation remains too high without committing to any specific move for July. Elevated or tightening rates reduce system-wide cash liquidity and speculative appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which already dropped 2-5% after June’s hawkish hold.
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