Copper hit a new all-time high of $14,674 per ton on the London Metal Exchange on September 9, marking a 1.1% gain for the session and an 18% increase since the start of the year. This rally is driven by a worsening physical shortage, with LME stocks in London down nearly 40% since end of May and Shanghai Exchange inventories collapsed by 85% since March, while US refined copper cathode imports reached 885,000 tons in the first half of 2025, including 225,094 tons in July alone, an absolute monthly record. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the world’s second-largest copper producer, declared force majeure following a mudslide on September 8, with Goldman Sachs estimating total production loss at 525,000 tons, shifting the global 2025 balance from a surplus of 105,000 tons to a deficit of 55,500 tons. Structural demand from artificial intelligence and electrification is amplifying this trend, with the market already surpassing Goldman Sachs’ 2027 target eighteen months ahead of schedule.
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