China has initiated new maritime patrols near Taiwan, using its coast guard and civilian maritime assets to exert pressure without overt military engagement. Taiwan responded by deploying its coast guard to monitor these activities, noting that Chinese vessels remained outside its restricted waters. Analysts suggest these patrols could escalate into a blockade and are designed to normalize Chinese control over strategic sea lanes surrounding the island. Prediction markets reflect an increased likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by end of 2027, now priced at 13%, up from 12% earlier.
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