The United States Central Command (CENTCOM) has executed precision airstrikes in Iraq targeting Iran-backed groups that were planning attacks on U.S. military personnel and strategic oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. Markets interpret these strikes as a measure to deter immediate Iranian military action against Gulf states. The probability of Iranian action against a Gulf state on July 30 has increased to 21.5%, reflecting heightened regional tensions. Observers will closely monitor potential statements from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and IRGC Commander Hossein Salami, which could impact market perceptions.
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