The International Energy Agency has cut its 2026 oil supply forecast and now expects full Gulf supply recovery in 2027. Global oil inventories fell by 95 million barrels in August while US year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.6% in the University of Michigan’s preliminary September survey. Global oil consumption is forecast to decline by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026 compared to 2025. The Fed meeting on September 15-16 will be a test for cheaper credit, with the key question being whether weakening consumption and recovering flows translate into less inflation pressure. Falling oil demand alone offers no assurance of relief for Bitcoin borrowers.
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